Friday, December 21, 2012

Combined chances turn out to be worse

I was playing an online IMPS tournament. Going into the last set, we were 25 imps positive and on Table 3. The way these things work is that Table 1 are the leaders, so Table 3 indicates that we have a decent shot to win the tourney.

The last board of the tournament was this hand:

What do you think of the auction (we are playing 2/1)? I opened my rule-of-20 hand as 1H, thinking it too strong for either pass or 2H. Partner forced to game with 2C and now I had a choice. I could bid out my pattern with 2D and then later bid 2H or I could limit my hand with 2H. I decided to limit my hand. Partner now temporized and I showed my 4-card minor and partner put us in the slam.

They led a low spade and when the dummy comes down, I feel pretty good. Players at my level simply do not bid minor-suit slams and this one seems to have several possible lines.

How would you play it?

There were two possible lines that I could see at the table:

 Line 1: I could make this thing by reversing the dummy, and ruffing out the spades. I would make if diamonds were 3-2 or if the club finesse worked.

 Line 2: I can play two rounds of clubs and ruff the third club with the 10. If it gets over-ruffed by the Jack, I can pull trumps and claim. This will make as long as clubs are 3-2.

My ability to gauge the odds is rather poor, but it seems that Line 1 has the chance of line 2 (a suit breaking 3-2) plus a 50% chance of a finesse. So, probably 80% vs. 68%.  So Line 1 is the line I took (click Next to see my play).

Unsuccessfully.

Is there a better line? Am I thinking about this right?

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Not necessarily surrounded

Playing a team match against competent opponents, I open 2NT (22-24 in our Precision system) and find myself in a rather routine 4S contract. North leads the King of diamonds and this is the dummy that comes down:


How do you play?  This is board 14 of a 16-board match and we are 2 imps behind. So no heroics.

I take the diamond Ace, pull two rounds of trumps and exit with a diamond.  North plays the 10 of diamonds but South overtakes with the Jack and leads the 9 of hearts.

I try the queen of hearts. It loses to the queen and a small heart comes back. Now what?

I had given up on the hand at that point. South overtaking the diamond and leading the the heart looked very much like a surrounding play. He must have lead from the J98 of hearts.  I played low from dummy, South played the 8 of hearts and I had one more heart and a club to lose. Down 1.

Unfortunately, this was the hand:


At the other table, they went down 2, so we actually gained 2 imps on this deal. However, had I made, we'd have gained quite a bit more imps.

The mistake? Not playing to make.  Yes, South's play looked suspiciously like a surrounding play, but he may have simply wanted a heart ruff -- he'd play the 9 of hearts from 98 hoping his partner had the AQ of hearts.  Put another way, if South had J98, I was toast no matter what, so I had to put the 10 up from dummy.

Monday, December 17, 2012

A flexible bid gives me too much rope


The contract was not a success: 4S went down 3.  Which bid was wrong -- the takeout double or the subsequent raise to game?

Looking over the hand-records, anyone who held my hand and overcalled 1D did well.  North bid 1NT, East came in with 2H and EW played it there for down 2.  No one holding my hand passed 2S: they all bid 4S and went down 3 or 4.

(a) Is there something about this hand that indicates that a 1D overcall would work out better than a takeout double?  Diamonds are much better, but it is not clear that diamonds (rather than, say, spades) is what I want led.

(b) Is there a better bid than 4S? I would think that 3D would indicate 17+ and no spade support.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Missing precision

I was playing with a non-regular partner in an online tournament, and we naturally decided to play 2/1.  We were having an excellent match (65-70%) until the last two boards.  This was board #7:



Is there any way playing 2/1 to avoid landing up in the slam?  The spade lead is dead-obvious on the auction too ... Playing precision, of course, it is quite easy to stop in 5C:
West
East
11
12
23
2NT
3
3NT
54
Pass5
(1) 16+
(2) 8+
(3) 5+ diamonds 16-21
(4) 6-5 or 5-5 in minors, 16-18
(5) no extras


The last board was a doozy of a fix:



Who bids 3nt instead of 4H with a soft stopper in spades and 5 hearts? Our opponents, that's who! My duck of the spade was right (click Next to see the play) -- I was hoping to set the contract if partner has one more entry. However, that was not to be, and 3NT+3 was a near-bottom.  Turns out that 3NT+2 would have gotten us only 5% more matchpoints.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

When you can count 14 tricks ...

I got so excited over being able to bid a grand that I forgot to count my tricks.
W
Pard
Kxxx
Kxxxx
x
Axx
Lead: K
E
Me
AQ9xx
AQJ
AKQx
x

Partner, sitting West, was dealer and he opened 1H:
Pard
Me
11
1
22
4NT3
54
75
(1) 11-15
(2) 5-4, 11-13
(3) RKC for spades
(4) 2 key cards without trump queen
(5) doh!

At match-points, that 7S bid was quite silly. Partner's two key cards are the Ace of clubs and the king of spades. Since my 7S bid assumes that partner must have the King of hearts for his 1H bid, I can count 14 tricks. 7NT is what I should have bid.

Fortunately, it turned out to not matter. No one else opened the West hand, and so, the rest of the field found only 6H or 6S.  7S was a cold top.

Friday, November 30, 2012

Two-way shots: Experts vs. Non-experts

I left a comment on Memphis MOJO's blog post about appeals at the ACBL nationals in San Francisco, but the whole situation stinks so much that I might as well mention it here.

It's this appeal of a Break-In-Tempo (BIT):



You can read the description and ruling on the bulletin (page 12).

The committee ruling seems to be that since East-West do not have special agreements against intermediate 2-level bids (which are played by very few pairs) and are not experts, East was not capable of taking a 2-way shot over 4D (i.e. bidding 4H helps both when 4D makes and just in case 4H makes).

Meanwhile, the expert pair (North-South) were taking a two-way shot of their own. They doubled the 4H contract, and then called the director.  If the contract failed, the result would stand and they would win. If 4H makes, it would get thrown out and their 4D result would stand and they would win.

The plan worked only because East-West said that they had a "2-second pause" probably not realizing that admission of any delay was admission of guilt. So, non-experts out there, beware!  Unlike at your duplicate club, good players don't just shrug and smile about being fixed. Experts who play for money (I hate to call them professionals) will try to take two-way shots and attempt to throw the rulebook at you if you mistakenly land up in a winning spot.



Monday, November 26, 2012

Play what you preach

BBO has a nice program where juniors get to play with the basic robots for free. I signed up both our kids.  The best thing about the robot tables is that I have the time to explain stuff -- the kids don't have to play quickly to avoid annoying other people. Robots, for all their faults, are infinitely patient and don't say a cross word!

Any way, back to the story.  The 10 year old was playing at a table with three robots over Thanksgiving weekend when he picked up this hand:


12 points, balanced. A rather nice 12-point hand, with two aces. What would you do with that South hand?

"You need 13 points to open," I had told the kid and so he smartly passed.  Now, partner opened 1NT (15-17) and the 10 year old had no problem bidding 3NT.  The Jack of clubs was led and the contract was quickly wrapped up for two overtricks.

+6 imps for the kiddo.  Curious, I looked at why such a routine contract was worth 6 imps.  Turns out that most Souths opened the hand 1D and now West overcalled some number of Hearts and NS had a hard time getting to 3NT.

I was describing my son's fortunate pass to partner on my way to the club game today. So, the hand was firmly in my mind when I picked up:
.
Vul: None
Dlr: South
N
North
Qxxx
Qxx
Kxx
xxx
.
W
West
AJ9x
xx
Jxx
Jxxx
Lead: A
E
East
10
AKxxx
Axxx
Axx
.
S
Me
Kxxx
Jxx
Q10x
KQx
.
What would you do with that South hand? It's a balanced dog and ought to be passed in any system. But ... I opened it and partner found himself down three in 2S;  -150 was a matchpoint bottom.

I should have listened to the advice I give my children!

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Good news, bad news

The good news: declarer respected my defensive skills.

The bad news: I misdefended the hand.

Playing in a sectional pairs tournament, I missed a chance to capitalize on declarer's respect for my defensive skills.  This was the hand (I was East):
.
Vul: None
Dlr: East
N
North
x
xxx
10xx
AQJxxx
.
W
West
xx
AQxx
Qxxx
Kxx
Lead: 5
E
Me
xxxx
Kxxx
Kxx
xx
.
S
South
AKQJxx
xx
AJx
xx
.
The bidding went:
W
West
N
North
E
East
S
South
Pass
1
Pass1
1NT2
Pass
4
(1) super-conservative partner
(2) forcing

I was playing with an occasional partner whose bidding and defensive play are very conservative.  This is usually not a problem -- I can, and did, adjust to partner's style. We had a 55% game overall, to end up 3rd overall in our direction. But, on this hand, the super-conservative style meant that he didn't do a negative double.  Obviously, North had been planning to bid some number of clubs. That, or a part-score in spades, was the contract at the other tables.  At our table, instead, declarer had bid what he thought he could make. 4S, making, was going to be a bottom board.

Double-dummy, of course, 5S makes, but declarer gave us a chance to set the contract. After the trump lead, declarer quickly pulled trumps and took the club finesse.  The Queen of clubs held. Then, he thought for a long while. Finally, he played the Ace of clubs (!) and when the king didn't drop, he ran his ten of diamonds to partner's queen.  Obviously, he was afraid that I had the king of clubs and had held up with it. Had he played a diamond to his Ace and repeated the club finesse, that would be the end of dummy.

But now that partner was in with the queen of diamonds, he could have set the contract if he'd cashed his Ace of hearts. I would have encouraged, and if he'd continued, we would have led a third heart to make declarer ruff and play diamonds out of his hand. 2 hearts and 2 diamonds would have been down 1. But partner led a diamond back, finessed me out of my king and that was the end for us.

But do you see why I say that I failed to capitalize on declarer's respect, in that he didn't take the "obvious" club finesse a second time? When he played the 10 of diamonds, I needed to go up with the king. Had I done so, we are guaranteed 4 tricks. Instead, I ducked, thinking that since dummy had no entries, my play made no difference. I failed to consider that partner might think that he was end-played and might well choose to finesse my diamond king.


Wednesday, November 7, 2012

A high-stakes gamble goes awry

The STaC results from the Monday game are in, and we missed winning the district by 2%, which means that this high-stakes gamble on the last round was worth 4 masterpoints. I held:
S
South
xxx
9xxx
AJxx
xx

This was the auction:
W
West
N
Pard
E
East
S
Me
1NT1
Pass
Pass
2
Dbl2
Pass
?
(1) 12-15
(2) takeout with a good 14 or 15 points

What would be your call?

For me, it was a tough decision. Partner might have 4 spades and 3 diamonds for his double. In which case, 2S is the right call. Or he might also have only 3 spades and 4 diamonds in which case 3D is the right call. Finally, it appears from my 5 points that the points are evenly divided and no 2-level contract may make. Were we trading a +50 for a -50?

I think I had convinced myself. This was going to be a high-stakes gamble: +100 or -470. A matchpoint top or a matchpoint bottom. I passed.

Alas, 2H was cold on the hand as the cards lay:
.
N
Pard
Qxx
Ax
K109xx
AQx
.
W
West
Kx
KQxxxx
Qx
Kxx
Lead: 10
E
East
AJ10xx
J
xx
Jxxxx
.
S
Me
xxx
9xxx
AJxx
xx
.
We got 2 diamonds, 2 clubs and a heart (yes, if I had arranged to give myself a club ruff, we could have beaten it). 2H doubled and made was a matchpoint zero. We had been at 72% heading into the last round; the zero dropped us to 68%.  68% was enough to win our 9-table club game, but we needed 70% to win the district.

2S, which would have been my second choice, doesn't look like a picnic either and -150 would also have been a bottom.  3D goes down only one, and -50 would have been a top, since most pairs were in 2H making for -110.  2Hx and down 1 for +100 would also have been a top.

Monday, November 5, 2012

If 4NT could be Blackwood ...

Playing in the STaC game today, I was stuck for a bid on the third hand of the night. I was South and I held:
N
North
Jxxx
A
QJ10x
KQxx
Lead: 3
S
South
AKQxxx
Kxx
Kx
Ax
Partner dealt and opened 2D.  This is mini-Roman and shows a 4-4-4-1 hand with an unspecified shortness.

I have this vague feeling that his shortness might be spades. But I need to find out, so I bid 2NT, asking him where his shortness was.

I nearly fall out of my chair when he bid 3H. His shortness in hearts.

Now what?

3S is merely invitational (2NT was just a one-round force).

4S is fast arrival. I don't think we are quite done yet.

5S would ask him how good his trumps were.  Holding four little trumps, there ain't no way he's raising to 6.

How on earth does one explore slam after Mini-Roman?

Well, I bid 4NT. I intended it as plain-old Blackwood. Partner reasoned that since we had no suit agreement, it was quantitative.  I thought that since neither of us had bid NT naturally, it could not be quantitative. Quite obviously, we had not discussed what 4NT meant in this situation and our general principles were in conflict.

Fortunately, partner did not pass the 4NT.

Instead, he raised to 6NT!  I gulped. We had blown right past 6S!

They led a diamond, dummy came down and I claimed 12 tricks.  It was a cool top because everyone else was in spades.

Some days you just can't lose and today was one of those days.

Take, for example, another hand:
S
South
KQJx
Kxx
1098xxx

If East opens 1NT (15-17), what do you do?

I overcalled 2S!  Yes, I have only four of them, but what do you expect me to do? Pass with this offensive monster? Bid 3C (2C would have been the majors) on a 10-high suit? I decided to overcall 2S.

West Texas-ed to 4D, partner bid 4S and over East's 5H, partner bid again! Mercifully, this did not get doubled. West now led a small diamond and this was the dummy that came down:
N
North
Axx xxx
AKx
KQxx
Lead: 3
S
South
KQJx
Kxx
1098xxx
East turned out to have AJx in clubs, so 5S made on the nose.

This too was close to a top.

Thanks to results like these, we finished with a 68% game for first in A, B and C and have some hope of getting a nice district award.







Friday, November 2, 2012

Coming up roses

Playing our big club system, online, I forgot my bid.

My double here (after a jump overcall of partner's artificial bid showing 16+ points) is supposed to show 7+ points and a balanced hand. I thought it was showing 5-8 balanced (as it would had the opponents bid 2C, not 3C). Anyway, having overbid my hand, I was now playing a 4-3 fit at the 4-level.  Click on my name to hide the other hands and plan the play once East leads the 7 of clubs.



Can you make it? I could! (click Next to see my play) Sometimes, the most egregious bid comes up roses.

Had I passed, of course, partner reopens with a double and now I ought to pass. We would have gotten an easy 500 instead of the seemingly miraculous 420.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

When opponents don't draw inferences from our bidding

Partner and I had one of our worst club games in a long time, finishing with 44%. Looking back over the boards, the whole thing was very swingy -- lots of fives (tops), but unfortunately lots of zeros as well. And the zeros outnumbered the tops. Hence 44%.

Sitting East (as dealer) and holding:
W
West
KJx
Kxxx
KQxx
K9
Lead: 5
E
East
AQ10x
Jx
J
Q10xxxx
I opened the hand, taking advantage of the preemptive nature of our 2C bid:
W
West
N
North
E
East
S
South
21
Pass
22
Pass
23
Pass
3NT
All Pass
(1) 5+ clubs, 11-15 pts
(2) stayman, range-ask
(3) 4 sp, weak (11-13)

We ended up with 3NT played by West.  2/1 or standard players who passed as East would find that the auction goes:
W
West
N
North
E
East
S
South
Pass
Pass
1NT1
Pass
2
Pass
2
Pass
3NT
All Pass
(1) 15-17
Same contract, same direction, so what's the big deal?

Well, by bidding 2D and then raising to 3NT, partner has sort-of-indicated a 4-card heart suit whereas in the 2/1 auction, partner has stated he has a 4-card heart suit.  Against us, when South got in with clubs, she led a heart through partner's king. Against the others, presumably, defense was more passive because the Jack in dummy made it look as if we would get an extra trick if they led the suit.  3NT exactly making vs. 3NT+1.  The difference between a bottom and an average board.

Can we teach our opponents to make the right inferences from our bidding?

Of course, I had my share of bad decisions as well. Here's a bidding problem. Sitting South, I hold this wonderful hand:
S
South
xx
9xxx
9xxx
AJx
I pass, naturally, and find that partner has a strong hand:
W
West
N
North
E
East
S
South
Pass
Pass
11
Pass
12
1
2
2
?
(1) 16+ points
(2) 0-7 points
Now what?

If I had an invitational bid available here, I could have used it. (Do you play Lebensohl in these situations?). I can bid 3H or 4H, but 3H is not really invitational, just competing.  I bid 3H, partner passed and made 11 tricks for a bottom board.  Turns out my 4th trump, spade shortness and the ace of clubs (he had a singleton club) were huge.  Playing 2/1, partner would open 1H, I would stretch to respond 2H and with his 18 points, partner would raise to 4.  Having opened 1C, and then bid 2H, partner had told me everything about his hand, so he didn't feel compelled to bid the game.

Is it time to ditch precision and go back to a 2/1 bidding system? The advantage of this is that we might get less swingy matches. On the other hand, as our string of clear tops from last night illustrates, opening light does play dividends as well.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Virtue unrewarded

Playing in a robot tourney on BBO, I bid 5C, got doubled and made it.  For 32%!  The majority were in the same contract, but they made an over trick.

What would be your line of play here? Once you have decided, click Next to see my line of play.


Since I have only entry to dummy, I decided to take what I thought was the better line on diamonds, to lead the Queen.  It appears that most players took the heart finesse, and when that won, they had a diamond discard available.

Is this just virtue unrewarded, or am I missing something?  Such as that since West discarded the 7 (assuming that is not a false card), I could have assumed that he had the King and led a low diamond towards the queen.

Monday, October 8, 2012

A Guinness with That

Thanks to a chain of contacts initiated by frequent commenter Paul Gipson, I got to play bridge in Ireland the second night after I got here.

Not only did I have a pleasant partner, friendly opponents and a glass of Guinness at the table, we even scored up 64% for second place!

The one dark spot was this board. See if you can make a better decision than I did.  I was South on this hand and had started 1S. West made a negative double. Partner prempts 4S and east bids 5D. What would you do at this point? Pass, double or bid 5S?



Would your decision change if I told you that this was a strong pair? (I didn't know this at the table).  Well, I passed and 5D made. They were one of only two pairs to bid a E-W game. 5S would have been a good sacrifice; this was the full hand:



Still, it was not all terrible  judgment. Here was a defense that turned out to be worth all 18 matchpoints. In the following hand, 1NT is 12-14 and 2D is natural. Against 4C, you lead the Ace of hearts and partner encourages with the 4 of hearts. Now what?



Click Next to see my defense:


Did you find the spade switch on trick 2?  I thought it was a relatively straightforward deduction, given partner had bid. Also, 4H our way makes on anything but a trump lead. So, I expected the board to be flat.  Some pairs bid 3NT and made on a diamond lead by North. Others were in 3C making 4. No one was in a heart contract.  +50 was the only positive North-South score!