I was playing an online IMPS tournament. Going into the last set, we were 25 imps positive and on Table 3. The way these things work is that Table 1 are the leaders, so Table 3 indicates that we have a decent shot to win the tourney.
The last board of the tournament was this hand:
What do you think of the auction (we are playing 2/1)? I opened my rule-of-20 hand as 1H, thinking it too strong for either pass or 2H. Partner forced to game with 2C and now I had a choice. I could bid out my pattern with 2D and then later bid 2H or I could limit my hand with 2H. I decided to limit my hand. Partner now temporized and I showed my 4-card minor and partner put us in the slam.
They led a low spade and when the dummy comes down, I feel pretty good. Players at my level simply do not bid minor-suit slams and this one seems to have several possible lines.
How would you play it?
There were two possible lines that I could see at the table:
Line 1: I could make this thing by reversing the dummy, and ruffing out the spades. I would make if diamonds were 3-2 or if the club finesse worked.
Line 2: I can play two rounds of clubs and ruff the third club with the 10. If it gets over-ruffed by the Jack, I can pull trumps and claim. This will make as long as clubs are 3-2.
My ability to gauge the odds is rather poor, but it seems that Line 1 has the chance of line 2 (a suit breaking 3-2) plus a 50% chance of a finesse. So, probably 80% vs. 68%. So Line 1 is the line I took (click Next to see my play).
Unsuccessfully.
Is there a better line? Am I thinking about this right?
Periodically, I have been checking back to this post to see what any of the (many) better declarers than I would suggest as a declarer line. Sadly, none have yet responded.
ReplyDeleteI would have been inclined to duck the opening lead. That puts me in great position should the SQ actually win the trick. But even if it loses, it seems I am in reasonable shape. The most damaging return by South is a heart through the KQ, but: (1) he might have the HA making that return not so damaging; or (2) he might not foresee how that lead will be damaging.
Assuming I lose a spade at Trick 1 and a spade is returned, I can pitch a club and win in dummy. I can soon take a club ruff in my hand and hope to pick up both minor suits for no losers: that is two spades, four diamonds, one club ruff, and five clubs for twelve tricks.
I am betting that there are better lines ... And I hope some out there will post to present them.