Combined chances turn out to be worse

I was playing an online IMPS tournament. Going into the last set, we were 25 imps positive and on Table 3. The way these things work is that Table 1 are the leaders, so Table 3 indicates that we have a decent shot to win the tourney.

The last board of the tournament was this hand:

What do you think of the auction (we are playing 2/1)? I opened my rule-of-20 hand as 1H, thinking it too strong for either pass or 2H. Partner forced to game with 2C and now I had a choice. I could bid out my pattern with 2D and then later bid 2H or I could limit my hand with 2H. I decided to limit my hand. Partner now temporized and I showed my 4-card minor and partner put us in the slam.

They led a low spade and when the dummy comes down, I feel pretty good. Players at my level simply do not bid minor-suit slams and this one seems to have several possible lines.

How would you play it?

There were two possible lines that I could see at the table:

 Line 1: I could make this thing by reversing the dummy, and ruffing out the spades. I would make if diamonds were 3-2 or if the club finesse worked.

 Line 2: I can play two rounds of clubs and ruff the third club with the 10. If it gets over-ruffed by the Jack, I can pull trumps and claim. This will make as long as clubs are 3-2.

My ability to gauge the odds is rather poor, but it seems that Line 1 has the chance of line 2 (a suit breaking 3-2) plus a 50% chance of a finesse. So, probably 80% vs. 68%.  So Line 1 is the line I took (click Next to see my play).

Unsuccessfully.

Is there a better line? Am I thinking about this right?

Not necessarily surrounded

Playing a team match against competent opponents, I open 2NT (22-24 in our Precision system) and find myself in a rather routine 4S contract. North leads the King of diamonds and this is the dummy that comes down:

How do you play?  This is board 14 of a 16-board match and we are 2 imps behind. So no heroics.

I take the diamond Ace, pull two rounds of trumps and exit with a diamond.  North plays the 10 of diamonds but South overtakes with the Jack and leads the 9 of hearts.

I try the queen of hearts. It loses to the queen and a small heart comes back. Now what?

I had given up on the hand at that point. South overtaking the diamond and leading the the heart looked very much like a surrounding play. He must have lead from the J98 of hearts.  I played low from dummy, South played the 8 of hearts and I had one more heart and a club to lose. Down 1.

Unfortunately, this was the hand:


At the other table, they went down 2, so we actually gained 2 imps on this deal. However, had I made, we'd have gained quite a bit more imps.

The mistake? Not playing to make.  Yes, South's play looked suspiciously like a surrounding play, but he may have simply wanted a heart ruff -- he'd play the 9 of hearts from 98 hoping his partner had the AQ of hearts.  Put another way, if South had J98, I was toast no matter what, so I had to put the 10 up from dummy.

A flexible bid gives me too much rope

The contract was not a success: 4S went down 3.  Which bid was wrong -- the takeout double or the subsequent raise to game?

Looking over the hand-records, anyone who held my hand and overcalled 1D did well.  North bid 1NT, East came in with 2H and EW played it there for down 2.  No one holding my hand passed 2S: they all bid 4S and went down 3 or 4.

(a) Is there something about this hand that indicates that a 1D overcall would work out better than a takeout double?  Diamonds are much better, but it is not clear that diamonds (rather than, say, spades) is what I want led.

(b) Is there a better bid than 4S? I would think that 3D would indicate 17+ and no spade support.

Missing precision

I was playing with a non-regular partner in an online tournament, and we naturally decided to play 2/1.  We were having an excellent match (65-70%) until the last two boards.  This was board #7:



Is there any way playing 2/1 to avoid landing up in the slam?  The spade lead is dead-obvious on the auction too ... Playing precision, of course, it is quite easy to stop in 5C:

West

East

1♣¹

1♥²

2♦³

2NT

3♣

3NT

5♣⁴

Pass⁵

—

—

(1) 16+

(2) 8+

(3) 5+ diamonds 16-21

(4) 6-5 or 5-5 in minors, 16-18

(5) no extras

The last board was a doozy of a fix:



Who bids 3nt instead of 4H with a soft stopper in spades and 5 hearts? Our opponents, that's who! My duck of the spade was right (click Next to see the play) -- I was hoping to set the contract if partner has one more entry. However, that was not to be, and 3NT+3 was a near-bottom.  Turns out that 3NT+2 would have gotten us only 5% more matchpoints.

When you can count 14 tricks ...

I got so excited over being able to bid a grand that I forgot to count my tricks.

W

Pard

♠

Kxxx

♥

Kxxxx

♦

x

♣

Axx

Lead: ♣K

E

Me

♠

AQ9xx

♥

AQJ

♦

AKQx

♣

x

Partner, sitting West, was dealer and he opened 1H:

Pard

Me

1♥¹

1♠

2♠²

4NT³

5♥⁴

7♠⁵

—

—

(1) 11-15

(2) 5-4, 11-13

(3) RKC for spades

(4) 2 key cards without trump queen

(5) doh!

At match-points, that 7S bid was quite silly. Partner's two key cards are the Ace of clubs and the king of spades. Since my 7S bid assumes that partner must have the King of hearts for his 1H bid, I can count 14 tricks. 7NT is what I should have bid.

Fortunately, it turned out to not matter. No one else opened the West hand, and so, the rest of the field found only 6H or 6S.  7S was a cold top.

Two-way shots: Experts vs. Non-experts

I left a comment on Memphis MOJO's blog post about appeals at the ACBL nationals in San Francisco, but the whole situation stinks so much that I might as well mention it here.

It's this appeal of a Break-In-Tempo (BIT):

 

You can read the description and ruling on the bulletin (page 12).

The committee ruling seems to be that since East-West do not have special agreements against intermediate 2-level bids (which are played by very few pairs) and are not experts, East was not capable of taking a 2-way shot over 4D (i.e. bidding 4H helps both when 4D makes and just in case 4H makes).

Meanwhile, the expert pair (North-South) were taking a two-way shot of their own. They doubled the 4H contract, and then called the director.  If the contract failed, the result would stand and they would win. If 4H makes, it would get thrown out and their 4D result would stand and they would win.

The plan worked only because East-West said that they had a "2-second pause" probably not realizing that admission of any delay was admission of guilt. So, non-experts out there, beware!  Unlike at your duplicate club, good players don't just shrug and smile about being fixed. Experts who play for money (I hate to call them professionals) will try to take two-way shots and attempt to throw the rulebook at you if you mistakenly land up in a winning spot.

Play what you preach

BBO has a nice program where juniors get to play with the basic robots for free. I signed up both our kids.  The best thing about the robot tables is that I have the time to explain stuff -- the kids don't have to play quickly to avoid annoying other people. Robots, for all their faults, are infinitely patient and don't say a cross word!

Any way, back to the story.  The 10 year old was playing at a table with three robots over Thanksgiving weekend when he picked up this hand:


12 points, balanced. A rather nice 12-point hand, with two aces. What would you do with that South hand?

"You need 13 points to open," I had told the kid and so he smartly passed.  Now, partner opened 1NT (15-17) and the 10 year old had no problem bidding 3NT.  The Jack of clubs was led and the contract was quickly wrapped up for two overtricks.

+6 imps for the kiddo.  Curious, I looked at why such a routine contract was worth 6 imps.  Turns out that most Souths opened the hand 1D and now West overcalled some number of Hearts and NS had a hard time getting to 3NT.

I was describing my son's fortunate pass to partner on my way to the club game today. So, the hand was firmly in my mind when I picked up:

.

Vul: None

Dlr: South

N

North

♠

Qxxx

♥

Qxx

♦

Kxx

♣

xxx

.

W

West

♠

AJ9x

♥

xx

♦

Jxx

♣

Jxxx

Lead: ♥A

E

East

♠

10

♥

AKxxx

♦

Axxx

♣

Axx

.

S

Me

♠

Kxxx

♥

Jxx

♦

Q10x

♣

KQx

.

What would you do with that South hand? It's a balanced dog and ought to be passed in any system. But ... I opened it and partner found himself down three in 2S;  -150 was a matchpoint bottom.

I should have listened to the advice I give my children!